Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Economy -

I guess I should make some comments on this?

I am certainly no expert and I do not wish to make any superfluous comment that will make me sound naive. But then again, this is something that affects me and thus naturally I am interested.

So, I am concerned about -
1) Is my money in BOA safe?
2) How will this impact research funding?
3) How will this impact my family's planning and my own planning?
4) Will this lead us to a state whereby I won't be able to find money to buy my first house?

I think -

1) Although it is pretty scary now but that shouldn't be a concern. BOA has been strong in their retail banking and they should have enough capital to absorb the shock. The fact that it is federally insured, well that's a bonus; though if BOA dies I don't think even the federal government can absorb it. We will all die together.

2) We can almost definitely expect federal funding to crunch in the short-to-medium term. No matter who becomes the next president, both have their own priorities and medical research is not part of anything. But the awesome thing about America is that research is not entirely dependent on the government, thus although funding will become more competitive it is unlikely to have a sustained effect on research as a whole. We have to be aware, though, that schools might cut down PhD positions and stipend rates, and there might be stronger competition for research fellowships.

3) I have been extremely conservative regarding my financial management, mainly because I do not have time to properly manage a complicated plan, and partially also because I am not too concerned about planning for the future at this moment. The economy's problem is not going to affect me in that respect, and because I am bonded, I am not worried about survival in the next 10 years at least. Though because I am thinking of going to do MD/PhD and this decision will severely impact my income and financial status, I will probably have to check spending pretty carefully in the next two years just in case I want to get married five years from now or something. I need to make sure that I can get fellowships to at least partially fund my medical education and PhD too.

4) This is something I can't control - I don't think the credit crisis will last that long, and if it does, we are all in deep trouble. Well, the worse case scenario would be, even after I get married I will still be living with my parents... So I definitely won't be in trouble, and since there is no way I can get married now, I am not worried. The smart thing to do would be, get a subsidised HDB before the combined income shoots above $8000, which I believe is quite unlikely to happen.

Oh and will the market sort itself out under all circumstances? I sincerely hope that it can, but I don't believe that it can without making all of us honest unambitious people not smart enough to undertstand financial engineering pay a huge price at intervals and usually at the most unexpected moments. Regulation is always a contentious issue, I don't know what to suggest about it, and I hope that those smart people sitting in DC and NY know what are their priorities and know what they should do...

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